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U Craiova 1948 vs CSM Reşiţa — Friendlies Clubs 2026

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
FT
2 – 1
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
2/6/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

U Craiova 194824%
×Draw23%
CSM Reşiţa53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.17
CSM Reşiţa
1.83

CSM Reşiţa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.67

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.33

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

CSM Reşiţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
47%
U Craiova 1948 or CSM Reşiţa
77%
Draw or CSM Reşiţa
76%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
10%
CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
69%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
33%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
11%
CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
84%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
54%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
32%
CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

CSM Reşiţa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.00 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.67 + U Craiova 1948 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
24%
level
23%
CSM Reşiţa scores more
53%

CSM Reşiţa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: U Craiova 1948 2–1 CSM Reşiţa

U Craiova 1948 beat CSM Reşiţa 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 6, 2021.