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CSM Reşiţa vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga II 2018

CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
8/6/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 1Stadionul Mircea Chivu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

CSM Reşiţa37%
×Draw27%
U Craiova 194836%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSM Reşiţa
1.25
U Craiova 1948
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 29 away

creates per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.40
U Craiova 1948
1.24

allows per match

CSM Reşiţa
1.22
U Craiova 1948
1.10

finishing

CSM Reşiţa+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSM Reşiţa ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

CSM Reşiţa or draw
64%
CSM Reşiţa or U Craiova 1948
73%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
63%

Winning margin

CSM Reşiţa wins by 2+
16%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

CSM Reşiţa 1+ goals
71%
CSM Reşiţa 2+ goals
36%
CSM Reşiţa 3+ goals
13%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
71%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
35%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

CSM Reşiţa (draw refunded)
51%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSM Reşiţa at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSM Reşiţa attack 1.40 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.24 + CSM Reşiţa defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

CSM Reşiţa scores more
37%
level
27%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
36%

CSM Reşiţa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CSM Reşiţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: CSM Reşiţa 2–0 U Craiova 1948

CSM Reşiţa beat U Craiova 1948 2-0 in Liga II on August 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Mircea Chivu in Reşiţa.