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U Craiova 1948 vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2018

U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
2/17/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 26Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

U Craiova 194832%
×Draw26%
CFR 1907 Cluj41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U Craiova 1948
1.19
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.38

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 16% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 154 away

creates per match

U Craiova 1948
1.43
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.47

allows per match

U Craiova 1948
1.29
CFR 1907 Cluj
0.95

finishing

U Craiova 1948+0.00on par
CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U Craiova 1948 ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U Craiova 1948 or draw
59%
U Craiova 1948 or CFR 1907 Cluj
74%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
68%

Winning margin

U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
13%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
70%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
33%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
12%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
75%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
40%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
44%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U Craiova 1948 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.95 · 154 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.43 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.19

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.47 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

U Craiova 1948 scores more
32%
level
26%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
41%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: U Craiova 1948 1–3 CFR 1907 Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj beat U Craiova 1948 3-1 in Liga I on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.