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CFR 1907 Cluj vs U Craiova 1948 — Liga I 2018

CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
U Craiova 1948
U Craiova 1948
11/7/2022Liga ILiga I · Round 17Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj53%
×Draw26%
U Craiova 194821%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.56
U Craiova 1948
0.88

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 77% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
1.81
U Craiova 1948
1.02

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj
0.74
U Craiova 1948
1.31

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.00on par
U Craiova 1948+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

U Craiova 1948 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw
79%
CFR 1907 Cluj or U Craiova 1948
74%
Draw or U Craiova 1948
47%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
28%
U Craiova 1948 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
79%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
46%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
21%
U Craiova 1948 1+ goals
59%
U Craiova 1948 2+ goals
22%
U Craiova 1948 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
71%
U Craiova 1948 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.74 · 156 matches

U Craiova 1948 away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.81 + U Craiova 1948 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

U Craiova 1948 attack 1.02 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
53%
level
26%
U Craiova 1948 scores more
21%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: CFR 1907 Cluj 3–1 U Craiova 1948

CFR 1907 Cluj beat U Craiova 1948 3-1 in Liga I on November 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.