U. Catolica 2–1 Union La Calera: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Union La Calera

12/6/2025

Primera División · Round 30Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

U. Catolica51%

×Draw25%

Union La Calera24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchUnion La Calera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.02

U. Catolica

1.59

Union La Calera

1.02

U. Catolica creates 56% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 127 away

1.83

creates per match

1.12

0.92

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.83

Union La Calera

1.12

allows per match

U. Catolica

0.92

Union La Calera

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Union La Calera →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

76%

U. Catolica or Union La Calera

75%

Draw or Union La Calera

49%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

26%

Union La Calera wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

80%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

47%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

21%

Union La Calera 1+ goals

64%

Union La Calera 2+ goals

27%

Union La Calera 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

68%

Union La Calera (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.83 + Union La Calera defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.59

Union La Calera attack 1.12 + U. Catolica defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

U. Catolica scores more

51%

level

25%

Union La Calera scores more

24%

U. Catolica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff