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U. Catolica vs Union La Calera — Copa Chile 2019

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
3/21/2025Copa ChileCopa Chile · Group Stage - 4Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

U. Catolica51%
×Draw25%
Union La Calera24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.59
Union La Calera
1.00

U. Catolica creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 13 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.87
Union La Calera
1.00

allows per match

U. Catolica
1.00
Union La Calera
1.31

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Union La Calera+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
76%
U. Catolica or Union La Calera
75%
Draw or Union La Calera
49%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
27%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
80%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
47%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
21%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
63%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
26%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
68%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.87 + Union La Calera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Union La Calera attack 1.00 + U. Catolica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

U. Catolica scores more
51%
level
25%
Union La Calera scores more
24%

U. Catolica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: U. Catolica 0–1 Union La Calera

Union La Calera beat U. Catolica 1-0 in Copa Chile on March 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Bicentenario Germán Becker in Temuco.