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U. Catolica vs Union La Calera — Primera División 2018

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Union La Calera
Union La Calera
F. Zampedri 75' (pen), 16'
7/20/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 16Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

U. Catolica46%
×Draw27%
Union La Calera28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.43
Union La Calera
1.05

U. Catolica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.12
Union La Calera
0.95

allows per match

U. Catolica
1.15
Union La Calera
1.73

finishing

U. Catolica+0.13scores more
Union La Calera+0.05on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Union La Calera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
72%
U. Catolica or Union La Calera
73%
Draw or Union La Calera
54%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
22%
Union La Calera wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
76%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
42%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
17%
Union La Calera 1+ goals
65%
Union La Calera 2+ goals
28%
Union La Calera 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
62%
Union La Calera (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 8 matches

Union La Calera away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.12 + Union La Calera defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Union La Calera attack 0.95 + U. Catolica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

U. Catolica scores more
46%
level
27%
Union La Calera scores more
28%

U. Catolica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
F. ZampedriU. CatolicaU. Catolica · F
8.9

Match Events

16'
F. Zampedri↳ J. Torres
21'
Alfred Canales
46'
F. Zuqui← A. Canales
46'
M. Morales← M. Muñoz
46'
P. Parra← R. Huerta
49'
Pablo Parra
69'
N. Brunet← W. Ponce
69'
E. Gigliotti← A. Encinas
70'
L. Romero← J. Torres
73'
Branco AmpueroPenalty confirmed
73'
Nahuel Brunet
75'
F. ZampedriPenalty
82'
J. Rossel← C. Cuevas
85'
D. Ulloa← E. Ferrario
85'
M. Cavalleri← M. Maturana
90+2'
A. Astudillo← F. Zampedri

Possession

50%U.

Shots

9U.

Pass accuracy

49%U.

Statistics

U.Union
Overview
50%Possession50%
9Total Shots9
0Corners5
18Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots9
4On Target4
4Off Target5
1Blocked0
7Inside Box4
2Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
351Total Passes339
239Accurate Passes245
68%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Match Recap: U. Catolica vs Union La Calera

U. Catolica beat Union La Calera 2-0 in Primera División on July 20, 2024.

Goals: F. Zampedri (16', 75' pen).

U. Catolica controlled possession (50%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.