U. Catolica 2–4 Sao Paulo: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Sao Paulo

D. Valencia 85'

F. Zampedri 47'

J. Calleri 63'

Luciano 39', 28'

Reinaldo 15' (pen)

7/1/2022

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

U. Catolica25%

×Draw23%

Sao Paulo51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchSao Paulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.77

U. Catolica

1.17

Sao Paulo

1.77

Sao Paulo creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

1.36

2.17

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.33

Sao Paulo

1.36

allows per match

U. Catolica

2.17

Sao Paulo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Sao Paulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Sao Paulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

49%

U. Catolica or Sao Paulo

77%

Draw or Sao Paulo

75%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

10%

Sao Paulo wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

69%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

33%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

11%

Sao Paulo 1+ goals

83%

Sao Paulo 2+ goals

53%

Sao Paulo 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

33%

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Sao Paulo away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.33 + Sao Paulo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sao Paulo attack 1.36 + U. Catolica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

U. Catolica scores more

25%

level

23%

Sao Paulo scores more

51%

Sao Paulo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Luciano

Sao Paulo · F

8.2

Match Events

-5'

Luciano

-5'

André Anderson

12'

Daniel González

15'

ReinaldoPenalty

23'

Igor Vinícius

28'

Luciano↳ J. Calleri

39'

Luciano↳ Reinaldo

47'

F. Zampedri↳ J. Fuenzalida

51'

Igor Vinícius

51'

Igor Vinícius

55'

Jonathan Calleri

58'

Patrick← Luciano

63'

J. Calleri↳ Igor Gomes

65'

Fabián Orellana← C. Cuevas

65'

D. Valencia← J. Fuenzalida

65'

F. Gutiérrez← I. Saavedra

67'

B. Ampuero← D. Gónzalez

72'

Rodrigo NestorCard upgrade

73'

Rodrigo Nestor

77'

Reinaldo

77'

G. Tapia← L. Aued

82'

Luizão← Reinaldo

84'

Fernando Zampedri

85'

D. Valencia↳ G. Tapia

87'

87'

89'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.Sao

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots9

8Corners6

5Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots9

7On Target5

4Off Target2

6Blocked2

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

468Total Passes193

412Accurate Passes135

88%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls10

2Yellow Cards8

0Red Cards3

2Offsides0