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Sao Paulo vs U. Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Sao Paulo
Sao Pauloadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Rodrigo 81'
João Moreira 59'
Eder 45+5' (pen)
Luciano 14'
J. Fuenzalida 88'
7/8/2022CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Round of 16Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sao Paulo70%
×Draw18%
U. Catolica12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Paulo
2.27
U. Catolica
0.83

Sao Paulo creates 173% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sao Paulo
2.21
U. Catolica
1.17

allows per match

Sao Paulo
0.50
U. Catolica
2.33

finishing

Sao Paulo+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Paulo ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sao Paulo or draw
88%
Sao Paulo or U. Catolica
82%
Draw or U. Catolica
30%

Winning margin

Sao Paulo wins by 2+
46%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sao Paulo 1+ goals
90%
Sao Paulo 2+ goals
66%
Sao Paulo 3+ goals
39%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
56%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
20%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sao Paulo (draw refunded)
85%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Paulo at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.50 · 14 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Paulo attack 2.21 + U. Catolica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

U. Catolica attack 1.17 + Sao Paulo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sao Paulo scores more
70%
level
18%
U. Catolica scores more
12%

Sao Paulo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sao Paulo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
LucianoSao PauloSao Paulo · F
9.0

Match Events

14'
Luciano↳ Patrick
30'
D. Gónzalez← C. Cuevas
45+3'
LéoPenalty awarded
45+5'
EderPenalty
46'
João Moreira← Miranda
46'
Talles Costa← Igor Gomes
46'
J. Fuenzalida← D. Gónzalez
55'
Éder
59'
João Moreira
68'
Rodrigo← Rafinha
68'
Luizão← Patrick
69'
Fernando Zampedri
72'
N. Paz← A. Parot
76'
E. Rigoni← Eder
79'
A. Astudillo← G. Tapia
79'
F. Gutiérrez← Fabián Orellana
81'
Rodrigo↳ Luciano
87'
Nehuén Paz
88'
J. Fuenzalida

Possession

51%Sao

Shots

18Sao

Pass accuracy

51%Sao

Statistics

SaoU.
Overview
51%Possession49%
18Total Shots10
5Corners6
15Fouls14
Shots
18Total Shots10
10On Target5
5Off Target2
3Blocked3
12Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
358Total Passes341
314Accurate Passes286
88%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Sao Paulo vs U. Catolica

Sao Paulo beat U. Catolica 4-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on July 8, 2022.

Goals: Luciano (14'), Eder (45+5' pen), João Moreira (59'), Rodrigo (81'), J. Fuenzalida (88').

Sao Paulo controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo in São Paulo, São Paulo.