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U. Catolica vs Palestino — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Palestino
Palestino
3/5/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 1st RoundEstadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

U. Catolica36%
×Draw24%
Palestino39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.46
Palestino
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.33
Palestino
0.89

allows per match

U. Catolica
2.17
Palestino
1.58

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
61%
U. Catolica or Palestino
76%
Draw or Palestino
64%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
17%
Palestino wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
77%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
43%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
18%
Palestino 1+ goals
78%
Palestino 2+ goals
45%
Palestino 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
48%
Palestino (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Palestino away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.33 + Palestino defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Palestino attack 0.89 + U. Catolica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

U. Catolica scores more
36%
level
24%
Palestino scores more
39%

Palestino at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Palestino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: U. Catolica 1–1 Palestino

U. Catolica and Palestino drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Santiago de Chile.