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U. Catolica vs Palestino — Primera División 2018

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Palestino
Palestino
8/3/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 18Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

U. Catolica50%
×Draw25%
Palestino25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.60
Palestino
1.07

U. Catolica creates 50% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 127 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.83
Palestino
1.22

allows per match

U. Catolica
0.92
Palestino
1.36

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Palestino+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Palestino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
75%
U. Catolica or Palestino
75%
Draw or Palestino
50%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
26%
Palestino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
80%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
47%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
22%
Palestino 1+ goals
66%
Palestino 2+ goals
29%
Palestino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
66%
Palestino (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Palestino away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.36 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.83 + Palestino defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.60

Palestino attack 1.22 + U. Catolica defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U. Catolica scores more
50%
level
25%
Palestino scores more
25%

U. Catolica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: U. Catolica 1–1 Palestino

U. Catolica and Palestino drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK in Santiago de Chile.