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U. Catolica vs Independiente del Valle — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
Angelo Preciado 74' (OG)
Duvier Riascos 33'
Juan Cornejo 24'
Cristián Dájome 86'
Alan Franco 4'
5/31/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundSan Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

U. Catolica26%
×Draw24%
Independiente del Valle50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.13
Independiente del Valle
1.67

Independiente del Valle creates 48% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.33
Independiente del Valle
1.17

allows per match

U. Catolica
2.17
Independiente del Valle
0.92

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Independiente del Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Independiente del Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
50%
U. Catolica or Independiente del Valle
76%
Draw or Independiente del Valle
74%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
10%
Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
68%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
31%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
11%
Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
81%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
50%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
34%
Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Independiente del Valle away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.33 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.13

Independiente del Valle attack 1.17 + U. Catolica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U. Catolica scores more
26%
level
24%
Independiente del Valle scores more
50%

Independiente del Valle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
José Pedro FuenzalidaU. CatolicaU. Catolica · M
8.9

Match Events

4'
Alan Franco↳ Alejandro Cabeza
16'
Anthony Landazuri
23'
Anthony Landazuri
23'
Anthony Landazuri
24'
Juan Cornejo↳ José Pedro Fuenzalida
28'
Luciano Aued
29'
Angelo Preciado← Roberto Garcés
33'
Duvier Riascos↳ José Pedro Fuenzalida
46'
Diego Valencia← Ignacio Saavedra
48'
Jorge Pinos
58'
Jhon Sánchez← Washington Corozo
59'
Alejandro Cabeza
74'
Angelo PreciadoOwn goal
77'
Énzo Maidana← Alejandro Cabeza
82'
Jeisson Vargas← Raimundo Rebolledo
84'
Angelo Preciado
84'
Cristian Pellerano
86'
Cristián Dájome↳ Cristian Pellerano
89'
Carlos Lobos← Duvier Riascos

Possession

68%U.

Shots

22U.

Pass accuracy

56%U.

Statistics

U.Independiente
Overview
68%Possession32%
22Total Shots6
15Corners1
16Fouls11
Shots
22Total Shots6
10On Target4
6Off Target1
6Blocked1
14Inside Box4
8Outside Box2
Passing
68%Possession32%
483Total Passes233
399Accurate Passes148
83%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves8
Discipline
16Fouls11
1Yellow Cards6
–Red Cards1
3Offsides0

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: U. Catolica 3–2 Independiente del Valle

U. Catolica beat Independiente del Valle 3-2 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 31, 2019.

Goals: Alan Franco (4'), Juan Cornejo (24'), Duvier Riascos (33'), Angelo Preciado (74' o.g.), Cristián Dájome (86').

U. Catolica controlled possession (68%) and registered 22 shots to 6.

The match was played at San Carlos de Apoquindo in Santiago.