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Independiente del Valle vs U. Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Cristián Dájome 59'
Cristian Pellerano 21', 11' (pen)
Alejandro Cabeza 13', 2'
5/24/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundOlimpico Atahualpa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Independiente del Valle65%
×Draw20%
U. Catolica15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente del Valle
2.17
U. Catolica
0.94

Independiente del Valle creates 131% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

creates per match

Independiente del Valle
2.00
U. Catolica
1.17

allows per match

Independiente del Valle
0.71
U. Catolica
2.33

finishing

Independiente del Valle+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente del Valle ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Independiente del Valle or draw
85%
Independiente del Valle or U. Catolica
80%
Draw or U. Catolica
35%

Winning margin

Independiente del Valle wins by 2+
42%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Independiente del Valle 1+ goals
89%
Independiente del Valle 2+ goals
64%
Independiente del Valle 3+ goals
36%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
61%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
24%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Independiente del Valle (draw refunded)
81%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente del Valle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente del Valle attack 2.00 + U. Catolica defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

U. Catolica attack 1.17 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Independiente del Valle scores more
65%
level
20%
U. Catolica scores more
15%

Independiente del Valle at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
Cristian PelleranoIndependiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle · M
10.0

Match Events

2'
Alejandro Cabeza↳ Cristian Pellerano
11'
Cristian PelleranoPenalty
13'
Alejandro Cabeza↳ Luis Segovia
21'
Cristian Pellerano
43'
Stefano Magnasco
46'
Diego Valencia← Duvier Riascos
55'
Diego Buonanotte← Edson Puch
59'
Cristián Dájome
66'
César Pinares
78'
Jeisson Vargas← César Pinares
79'
Jhon Sánchez← Roberto Garcés
85'
Efrén Mera← Alan Franco
90'
Claudio Bieler← Cristián Dájome

Possession

60%Independiente

Shots

19Independiente

Pass accuracy

52%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteU.
Overview
60%Possession40%
19Total Shots5
5Corners2
10Fouls18
Shots
19Total Shots5
11On Target1
6Off Target2
2Blocked2
14Inside Box3
5Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
484Total Passes315
420Accurate Passes248
87%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls18
0Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Independiente del Valle vs U. Catolica

Independiente del Valle beat U. Catolica 5-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 24, 2019.

Goals: Alejandro Cabeza (2', 13'), Cristian Pellerano (11' pen, 21'), Cristián Dájome (59').

Independiente del Valle controlled possession (60%) and registered 19 shots to 5.

The match was played at Olimpico Atahualpa in Quito.