U. Catolica 2–2 Deportes Copiapo: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Deportes Copiapo

12/2/2023

Primera División · Round 29Estadio Santa Laura-Universidad SEK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

U. Catolica61%

×Draw22%

Deportes Copiapo17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchDeportes Copiapo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.86

U. Catolica

1.88

Deportes Copiapo

0.86

U. Catolica creates 119% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 30 away

1.83

creates per match

0.80

0.92

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.83

Deportes Copiapo

0.80

allows per match

U. Catolica

0.92

Deportes Copiapo

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Deportes Copiapo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

83%

U. Catolica or Deportes Copiapo

78%

Draw or Deportes Copiapo

39%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

36%

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

85%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

56%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

29%

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals

58%

Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals

21%

Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

79%

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Deportes Copiapo away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.83 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

Deportes Copiapo attack 0.80 + U. Catolica defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

U. Catolica scores more

61%

level

22%

Deportes Copiapo scores more

17%

U. Catolica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff