Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Deportes Copiapo
Deportes Copiapo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
G. Tapia 76'
4/27/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 10Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Deportes Copiapo34%
×Draw25%
U. Catolica41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportes Copiapo
1.40
U. Catolica
1.55

U. Catolica creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 129 away

creates per match

Deportes Copiapo
1.60
U. Catolica
1.50

allows per match

Deportes Copiapo
1.60
U. Catolica
1.19

finishing

Deportes Copiapo+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportes Copiapo ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Deportes Copiapo or draw
59%
Deportes Copiapo or U. Catolica
75%
Draw or U. Catolica
66%

Winning margin

Deportes Copiapo wins by 2+
16%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deportes Copiapo 1+ goals
75%
Deportes Copiapo 2+ goals
41%
Deportes Copiapo 3+ goals
17%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
79%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
46%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Deportes Copiapo (draw refunded)
46%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportes Copiapo at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportes Copiapo attack 1.60 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.40

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Deportes Copiapo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportes Copiapo scores more
34%
level
25%
U. Catolica scores more
41%

U. Catolica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
G. TapiaU. CatolicaU. Catolica · F
7.6

Match Events

7'
Maximiliano QuinterosGoal cancelled
23'
Isaac Díaz
46'
L. Menossi← J. Torres
49'
Bryan Soto
58'
A. Aravena← C. Montes
58'
F. Zampedri← N. Castillo
69'
Y. González← B. Soto
69'
J. Gaete← I. Díaz
72'
C. Cuevas← C. Pinares
76'
G. Tapia↳ F. Zampedri
81'
T. Figueroa← M. Quinteros
81'
L. Pais← B. Nieto
83'
F. Torres← Á. Cazula
85'
A. Parot← A. Canales
90+4'
Eugenio Mena

Possession

40%Deportes

Shots

15Deportes

Pass accuracy

46%Deportes

Statistics

DeportesU.
Overview
40%Possession60%
15Total Shots14
7Corners2
8Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots14
3On Target3
9Off Target7
3Blocked4
7Inside Box8
8Outside Box6
Passing
40%Possession60%
259Total Passes418
188Accurate Passes359
73%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls6
2Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportes Copiapo vs U. Catolica

U. Catolica beat Deportes Copiapo 1-0 in Primera División on April 27, 2024.

Goals: G. Tapia (76').

U. Catolica controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla in Copiapó.