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U. Catolica vs Cruzeiro — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
5/7/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Claro Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

U. Catolica27%
×Draw33%
Cruzeiro40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
0.75
Cruzeiro
0.98

Cruzeiro creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.33
Cruzeiro
0.83

allows per match

U. Catolica
1.13
Cruzeiro
0.17

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Cruzeiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 75Over: 2575%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Cruzeiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
60%
U. Catolica or Cruzeiro
67%
Draw or Cruzeiro
73%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
8%
Cruzeiro wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
53%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
17%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
4%
Cruzeiro 1+ goals
62%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
26%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
40%
Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Cruzeiro away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.33 + Cruzeiro defence 0.17 → ÷2 → 0.75

Cruzeiro attack 0.83 + U. Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

U. Catolica scores more
27%
level
33%
Cruzeiro scores more
40%

Cruzeiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

81
Otavio CostaCruzeiroCruzeiro · G
8.0

Match Events

13'
J. Giani
21'
Artur Jorge
29'
Kaiki
37'
L. Romero
48'
K. Arroyo
63'
G. Medel← F. Zuqui
63'
J. A. Martinez← E. Mena
63'
M. Palavecino← C. Montes
66'
M. Palavecino
78'
Joao Marcelo← Christian
78'
Kenji← L. Romero

Possession

U.: 53Cruzeiro: 4753%U.

Shots

U.: 13Cruzeiro: 1113U.

Pass accuracy

U.: 82Cruzeiro: 8150%U.

Statistics

U.Cruzeiro
Overview
53%Possession47%
13Total Shots11
0.98Expected Goals (xG)0.54
5Corners2
16Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target1
5Off Target6
3Blocked4
8Inside Box7
5Outside Box4
Passing
53%Possession47%
360Total Passes337
296Accurate Passes273
82%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.29Goals Prevented0.29
Discipline
16Fouls7
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
0Offsides2

Match Recap: U. Catolica vs Cruzeiro

U. Catolica and Cruzeiro drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 7, 2026.

U. Catolica controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Claro Arena in Santiago de Chile.