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Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
Matheus Pereira 60' (pen)
J. A. Martinez 90'
J. Giani 29'
4/15/2026CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Governador Magalhães Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cruzeiro72%
×Draw20%
U. Catolica9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cruzeiro
1.95
U. Catolica
0.52

Cruzeiro creates 275% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 16 away

creates per match

Cruzeiro
2.40
U. Catolica
0.63

allows per match

Cruzeiro
0.40
U. Catolica
1.50

finishing

Cruzeiro+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 65Yes: 3565%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cruzeiro ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cruzeiro or draw
91%
Cruzeiro or U. Catolica
80%
Draw or U. Catolica
28%

Winning margin

Cruzeiro wins by 2+
45%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Cruzeiro 1+ goals
86%
Cruzeiro 2+ goals
58%
Cruzeiro 3+ goals
31%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
41%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
10%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Cruzeiro (draw refunded)
89%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cruzeiro at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cruzeiro attack 2.40 + U. Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

U. Catolica attack 0.63 + Cruzeiro defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Cruzeiro scores more
72%
level
20%
U. Catolica scores more
9%

Cruzeiro at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Cruzeiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
GersonCruzeiroCruzeiro · M
8.0

Match Events

-5'
Lucas Romero
29'
J. Giani↳ F. Zuqui
32'
Justo Giani
46'
William Furtado← Kaua Moraes
46'
K. Arroyo← Wanderson
48'
Gerson
48'
Fernando Zuqui
54'
Matheus Pereira
59'
Vicente Bernedo
60'
Matheus PereiraPenalty
62'
Jhojan Valencia
63'
Matheus Henrique
72'
Lucas Silva← Matheus Pereira
78'
M. Palavecino← E. Mena
78'
S. Arancibia← C. Montes
81'
Lucas Silva
83'
Chico← N. Villarreal
89'
Bruno Rodrigues← Christian
89'
J. Rossel← J. Giani
89'
J. A. Martinez← F. Zampedri
90'
J. A. Martinez↳ J. Valencia

Possession

Cruzeiro: 64U.: 3664%Cruzeiro

Shots

Cruzeiro: 17U.: 917Cruzeiro

Pass accuracy

Cruzeiro: 86U.: 7254%Cruzeiro

Statistics

CruzeiroU.
Overview
64%Possession36%
17Total Shots9
2.21Expected Goals (xG)0.89
4Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots9
6On Target4
10Off Target5
1Blocked0
9Inside Box7
8Outside Box2
Passing
64%Possession36%
402Total Passes232
347Accurate Passes168
86%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
0.29Goals Prevented0.29
Discipline
12Fouls15
5Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Cruzeiro vs U. Catolica

U. Catolica beat Cruzeiro 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 15, 2026.

Goals: J. Giani (29'), Matheus Pereira (60' pen), J. A. Martinez (90').

Cruzeiro controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Governador Magalhães Pinto in Belo Horizonte.