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U. Catolica vs Atletico Nacional — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

U. Catolica
U. Catolica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
D. Valencia 79'
L. Aued 9'
5/27/2021CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · Group F - 6Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

U. Catolica50%
×Draw27%
Atletico Nacional24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

U. Catolica
1.45
Atletico Nacional
0.91

U. Catolica creates 59% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

U. Catolica
1.33
Atletico Nacional
0.69

allows per match

U. Catolica
1.13
Atletico Nacional
1.56

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par
Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

Atletico Nacional →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw
76%
U. Catolica or Atletico Nacional
73%
Draw or Atletico Nacional
50%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals
77%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
42%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
18%
Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
60%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
23%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)
68%
Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.33 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Nacional attack 0.69 + U. Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

U. Catolica scores more
50%
level
27%
Atletico Nacional scores more
24%

U. Catolica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
S. PerezU. CatolicaU. Catolica · G
8.0

Match Events

-5'
Vladimir Hernández
9'
L. Aued↳ M. Nuñez
22'
Diego Valencia
36'
Ignacio Saavedra
45+2'
Yerson Candelo
52'
Marcelino Núñez
62'
A. Castro← N. Moreno
67'
Sebastián Pérez
68'
Brayan Rovira
74'
C. Montes← E. Puch
74'
B. Córdoba← E. Olivera
74'
J. Alvez← Y. Candelo
78'
F. Gutiérrez← L. Aued
79'
D. Valencia↳ C. Montes
90+1'
Tomas Astaburuaga
90+2'
F. Silva← J. Leiva
90+2'
A. Parot← J. Cornejo

Possession

37%U.

Shots

14U.

Pass accuracy

47%U.

Statistics

U.Atletico
Overview
37%Possession63%
14Total Shots19
7Corners4
17Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots19
6On Target6
6Off Target10
2Blocked3
10Inside Box11
4Outside Box8
Passing
37%Possession63%
300Total Passes504
222Accurate Passes429
74%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
6Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: U. Catolica 2–0 Atletico Nacional

U. Catolica beat Atletico Nacional 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Aued (9'), D. Valencia (79').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (63%) and registered 19 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo in Santiago de Chile.