Atletico Nacional 2–0 U. Catolica: Result & Stats

Atletico Nacional

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

U. Catolica

J. Duque 45'

A. Andrade 39'

4/23/2021

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group F - 1Estadio Hernán Ramírez Villegas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atletico Nacional56%

×Draw25%

U. Catolica18%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico NacionalExpected goals in this matchU. Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.76

Atletico Nacional

1.56

U. Catolica

0.76

Atletico Nacional creates 105% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.63

creates per match

0.63

0.88

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Atletico Nacional

1.63

U. Catolica

0.63

allows per match

Atletico Nacional

0.88

U. Catolica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

U. Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw

82%

Atletico Nacional or U. Catolica

75%

Draw or U. Catolica

44%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

30%

U. Catolica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

79%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

46%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

21%

U. Catolica 1+ goals

53%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

18%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

76%

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.63 + U. Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

U. Catolica attack 0.63 + Atletico Nacional defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more

56%

level

25%

U. Catolica scores more

18%

Atletico Nacional at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

J. Duque

Atletico Nacional · F

8.2

Match Events

39'

A. Andrade↳ J. Duque

41'

Brayan Rovira

45'

J. Duque↳ B. Perlaza

46'

G. Tapia← R. Rebolledo

50'

Fernando Zampedri

56'

D. Valencia← G. Lezcano

56'

J. Cornejo← A. Parot

56'

J. Leiva← M. Nuñez

73'

J. Alvez← J. Duque

73'

A. Castro← J. Barrera

73'

D. Buonanotte← I. Saavedra

83'

Valber Huerta

85'

V. Hernández← A. Andrade

86'

G. Perea← E. Olivera

90+1'

Baldomero Perlaza

90+4'

J. Marulanda← B. Perlaza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoU.

Overview

58%Possession42%

10Total Shots7

5Corners0

13Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots7

6On Target1

4Off Target5

0Blocked1

9Inside Box3

1Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

587Total Passes408

513Accurate Passes338

87%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0