U. Catolica 1–2 America de Cali: Result & Stats

U. Catolica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

America de Cali

M. Nuñez 45+1'

M. Pisano 53'

D. Vergara 22'

3/10/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

U. Catolica43%

×Draw26%

America de Cali31%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

U. CatolicaExpected goals in this matchAmerica de Cali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.15

U. Catolica

1.42

America de Cali

1.15

U. Catolica creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.13

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

U. Catolica

1.33

America de Cali

1.17

allows per match

U. Catolica

1.13

America de Cali

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

U. Catolica+0.00on par

America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

U. Catolica ↓

America de Cali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

U. Catolica or draw

69%

U. Catolica or America de Cali

74%

Draw or America de Cali

57%

Winning margin

U. Catolica wins by 2+

21%

America de Cali wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

U. Catolica 1+ goals

76%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

41%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

17%

America de Cali 1+ goals

68%

America de Cali 2+ goals

32%

America de Cali 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

59%

America de Cali (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

U. Catolica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

U. Catolica attack 1.33 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

America de Cali attack 1.17 + U. Catolica defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

U. Catolica scores more

43%

level

26%

America de Cali scores more

31%

U. Catolica at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "U. Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

M. Nuñez

U. Catolica · M

7.5

Match Events

22'

26'

32'

37'

45'

45'

45+1'

53'

62'

D. Buonanotte← C. Munder

62'

F. Jaramillo← Y. Cabrera

70'

Eder Chaux

75'

D. Valencia← M. Nuñez

77'

84'

87'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

U.America

Overview

62%Possession38%

10Total Shots7

7Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots7

4On Target4

5Off Target2

1Blocked1

4Inside Box3

6Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

462Total Passes280

394Accurate Passes214

85%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1