America de Cali 1–1 U. Catolica: Result & Stats

America de Cali

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

U. Catolica

D. Vergara 4'

F. Zampedri 34'

9/24/2020

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

America de Cali38%

×Draw29%

U. Catolica33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America de CaliExpected goals in this matchU. Catolica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.06

America de Cali

1.17

U. Catolica

1.06

America de Cali creates 10% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

0.83

creates per match

0.63

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

America de Cali

0.83

U. Catolica

0.63

allows per match

America de Cali

1.50

U. Catolica

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America de Cali+0.00on par

U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America de Cali ↓

U. Catolica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

America de Cali or draw

67%

America de Cali or U. Catolica

71%

Draw or U. Catolica

62%

Winning margin

America de Cali wins by 2+

16%

U. Catolica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

America de Cali 1+ goals

69%

America de Cali 2+ goals

33%

America de Cali 3+ goals

11%

U. Catolica 1+ goals

65%

U. Catolica 2+ goals

29%

U. Catolica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

America de Cali (draw refunded)

54%

U. Catolica (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America de Cali at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America de Cali attack 0.83 + U. Catolica defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.17

U. Catolica attack 0.63 + America de Cali defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

America de Cali scores more

38%

level

29%

U. Catolica scores more

33%

America de Cali at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "America de Cali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

R. Carrascal

America de Cali · M

7.9

Match Events

4'

16'

23'

29'

29'

D. Quiñones← N. Giraldo

34'

F. Zampedri↳ L. Aued

46'

F. Jaramillo← C. Sierra

54'

J. Pérez← A. Ramos

58'

R. Urena

74'

S. Moreno← J. Arias

74'

L. Sánchez← D. Vergara

75'

D. Valencia← G. Lezcano

75'

D. Buonanotte← C. Pinares

90+3'

I. Saavedra

90+3'

D. Valencia

90+4'

M. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AmericaU.

Overview

37%Possession63%

15Total Shots11

4Corners6

25Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots11

5On Target4

6Off Target6

4Blocked1

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box2

Passing

37%Possession63%

299Total Passes512

216Accurate Passes417

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

25Fouls18

4Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1