Tzeirey Taibe 2–0 Maccabi Tzur Shalom

Tzeirey Taibe

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

11/4/2022

League #496 · North - 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tzeirey Taibe53%

×Draw32%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tzeirey TaibeExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Tzur Shalom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.48

Tzeirey Taibe

1.16

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.48

Tzeirey Taibe creates 142% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.40

creates per match

0.77

0.20

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Tzeirey Taibe

1.40

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.77

allows per match

Tzeirey Taibe

0.20

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tzeirey Taibe+0.00on par

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under77
Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirey Taibe ↓

Maccabi Tzur Shalom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–019%

0–19%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

81%19%1.5

49%51%2.5

23%77%3.5

8%92%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Tzeirey Taibe or draw

85%

Tzeirey Taibe or Maccabi Tzur Shalom

68%

Draw or Maccabi Tzur Shalom

47%

Winning margin

Tzeirey Taibe wins by 2+

24%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Tzeirey Taibe 1+ goals

69%

Tzeirey Taibe 2+ goals

32%

Tzeirey Taibe 3+ goals

11%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals

38%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals

8%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Tzeirey Taibe (draw refunded)

78%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

15%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tzeirey Taibe at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirey Taibe attack 1.40 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 0.77 + Tzeirey Taibe defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Tzeirey Taibe scores more

53%

level

32%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more

15%

Tzeirey Taibe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tzeirey Taibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff