Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1–1 Tzeirey Taibe

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tzeirey Taibe

3/10/2023

League #496 · North - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom21%

×Draw27%

Tzeirey Taibe53%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tzur ShalomExpected goals in this matchTzeirey Taibe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.80

1.46

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.80

Tzeirey Taibe

1.46

Tzeirey Taibe creates 83% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

1.80

1.13

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.20

Tzeirey Taibe

1.80

allows per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.13

Tzeirey Taibe

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Tzeirey Taibe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tzur Shalom ↓

Tzeirey Taibe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or draw

47%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or Tzeirey Taibe

73%

Draw or Tzeirey Taibe

79%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+

6%

Tzeirey Taibe wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals

55%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals

19%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals

5%

Tzeirey Taibe 1+ goals

77%

Tzeirey Taibe 2+ goals

43%

Tzeirey Taibe 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)

28%

Tzeirey Taibe (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Tzeirey Taibe away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 1.20 + Tzeirey Taibe defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.80

Tzeirey Taibe attack 1.80 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more

21%

level

27%

Tzeirey Taibe scores more

53%

Tzeirey Taibe at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Tzeirey Taibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff