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Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Maccabi K. Ata Bialik — League #496 2026

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
CANC
11:00
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
3/7/2025League #496League #496 · North - 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm35%
×Draw28%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
1.17
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
1.00
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.67

allows per match

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
0.78
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.33

finishing

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm ↓

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm or draw
62%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm or Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
72%
Draw or Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
65%

Winning margin

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
14%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
69%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
33%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
11%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 2+ goals
35%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
48%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm attack 1.00 + Maccabi K. Ata Bialik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik attack 1.67 + Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm scores more
35%
level
28%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik scores more
38%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi K. Ata Bialik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm face Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (League #496)

League #496 returns with Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm hosting Maccabi K. Ata Bialik. Match starts March 7, 2025. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.