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Maccabi K. Ata Bialik vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm — League #496 2026

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
B. Tsega 90'
A. Ghassan 45'
M. Abu Gwad 43'
Q. Halaf 39'
12/10/2024League #496League #496 · North - 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik38%
×Draw24%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.50
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.33
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
1.33

allows per match

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik
1.67
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
1.67

finishing

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik+0.00on par
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik ↓

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik or draw
62%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik or Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
76%
Draw or Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm
62%

Winning margin

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik wins by 2+
18%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 1+ goals
78%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 2+ goals
44%
Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 3+ goals
19%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
78%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
44%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik (draw refunded)
50%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik attack 1.33 + Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm attack 1.33 + Maccabi K. Ata Bialik defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik scores more
38%
level
24%
Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm scores more
38%

Maccabi K. Ata Bialik at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi K. Ata Bialik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Q. Halaf
43'
M. Abu Gwad
45'
A. Ghassan
90'
B. Tsega

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi K. Ata Bialik vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm

Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm beat Maccabi K. Ata Bialik 3-1 in League #496 on December 10, 2024.

Goals: Q. Halaf (39'), M. Abu Gwad (43'), A. Ghassan (45'), B. Tsega (90').