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Tyumen vs Spartak Tuymazy — Second League - Group 4 2020

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
8/7/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 4Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Tyumen68%
×Draw17%
Spartak Tuymazy15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
2.52
Spartak Tuymazy
1.11

Tyumen creates 127% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

creates per match

Tyumen
2.33
Spartak Tuymazy
1.36

allows per match

Tyumen
0.86
Spartak Tuymazy
2.71

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
85%
Tyumen or Spartak Tuymazy
83%
Draw or Spartak Tuymazy
32%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
46%
Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
92%
Tyumen 2+ goals
71%
Tyumen 3+ goals
45%
Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
67%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
30%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
82%
Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 2.33 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.52

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Tyumen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tyumen scores more
68%
level
17%
Spartak Tuymazy scores more
15%

Tyumen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Spartak Tuymazy

Tyumen beat Spartak Tuymazy 4-3 in Second League - Group 4 on August 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.