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Spartak Tuymazy vs Tyumen — Second League - Group 4 2020

Spartak Tuymazy
Spartak Tuymazy
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
5/15/2022Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Stadion Spartak Tuymazy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spartak Tuymazy23%
×Draw21%
Tyumen56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Tuymazy
1.34
Tyumen
2.18

Tyumen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

creates per match

Spartak Tuymazy
1.86
Tyumen
2.29

allows per match

Spartak Tuymazy
2.07
Tyumen
0.83

finishing

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Tuymazy ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Spartak Tuymazy or draw
44%
Spartak Tuymazy or Tyumen
79%
Draw or Tyumen
77%

Winning margin

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+
10%
Tyumen wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals
15%
Tyumen 1+ goals
89%
Tyumen 2+ goals
64%
Tyumen 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)
29%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Tuymazy at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.86 + Tyumen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tyumen attack 2.29 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Spartak Tuymazy scores more
23%
level
21%
Tyumen scores more
56%

Tyumen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spartak Tuymazy vs Tyumen

Tyumen beat Spartak Tuymazy 4-1 in Second League - Group 4 on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak Tuymazy in Tuymazy.