Tyumen 2–1 PFC Sochi: Result & Stats | First League

Tyumen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

PFC Sochi

9/19/2018

First League · Round 12Stadion Geolog (Tyumen')

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tyumen31%

×Draw28%

PFC Sochi41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchPFC Sochi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.26

Tyumen

1.06

PFC Sochi

1.26

PFC Sochi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

1.04

creates per match

1.45

1.07

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

PFC Sochi

1.45

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

PFC Sochi

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

PFC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

PFC Sochi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

59%

Tyumen or PFC Sochi

72%

Draw or PFC Sochi

69%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

12%

PFC Sochi wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

65%

Tyumen 2+ goals

29%

Tyumen 3+ goals

9%

PFC Sochi 1+ goals

72%

PFC Sochi 2+ goals

36%

PFC Sochi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

43%

PFC Sochi (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

PFC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + PFC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.06

PFC Sochi attack 1.45 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tyumen scores more

31%

level

28%

PFC Sochi scores more

41%

PFC Sochi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "PFC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff