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Tyumen vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
R. Bart 90+5'
11/17/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 19Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tyumen31%
×Draw28%
FC Sochi41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.05
FC Sochi
1.27

FC Sochi creates 21% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 38 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.02
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Tyumen
1.08
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
59%
Tyumen or FC Sochi
72%
Draw or FC Sochi
69%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
12%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
65%
Tyumen 2+ goals
28%
Tyumen 3+ goals
9%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
72%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
36%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
43%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.02 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.05

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Tyumen defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tyumen scores more
31%
level
28%
FC Sochi scores more
41%

FC Sochi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Ruslan Magal
29'
Stanislav Poroykov
52'
Danil Karpov
55'
D. Tkachuk← A. Maryanov
56'
Aleksandr Korotaev
59'
Mikhail Petrov
62'
K. Zaika← K. Nikitin
76'
O. Kenfack← A. Kulishev
76'
I. Mokaev← S. Poroykov
76'
A. Shushenachev← P. Meleshin
76'
R. Bart← R. Magal
86'
A. Savinov← A. Korotaev
90+4'
Olivier Kenfack
90'
Danil Karpov
90'
Danil Karpov
90+5'
R. Bart

Statistics

TyumenFC
Discipline
6Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Tyumen vs FC Sochi

FC Sochi beat Tyumen 1-0 in First League on November 17, 2024.

Goals: R. Bart (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.