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Tyumen vs Lada Tolyatti — Second League - Group 4 2020

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Lada Tolyatti
Lada Tolyatti
10/23/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Tyumen76%
×Draw15%
Lada Tolyatti9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
2.63
Lada Tolyatti
0.78

Tyumen creates 237% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 41 away

creates per match

Tyumen
2.33
Lada Tolyatti
0.71

allows per match

Tyumen
0.86
Lada Tolyatti
2.93

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Lada Tolyatti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
91%
Tyumen or Lada Tolyatti
85%
Draw or Lada Tolyatti
24%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
55%
Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
93%
Tyumen 2+ goals
73%
Tyumen 3+ goals
48%
Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals
54%
Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals
18%
Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
90%
Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

Lada Tolyatti away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.93 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 2.33 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.63

Lada Tolyatti attack 0.71 + Tyumen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Tyumen scores more
76%
level
15%
Lada Tolyatti scores more
9%

Tyumen at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tyumen vs Lada Tolyatti

Tyumen beat Lada Tolyatti 7-0 in Second League - Group 4 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.