Lada Tolyatti 0–8 Tyumen: Result & Stats

Lada Tolyatti

FT

0 – 8

HT: 0 – 4

Tyumen

6/10/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Lada Tolyatti14%

×Draw18%

Tyumen68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lada TolyattiExpected goals in this matchTyumen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

2.29

Lada Tolyatti

0.92

Tyumen

2.29

Tyumen creates 149% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 41 away

1.00

creates per match

2.29

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Lada Tolyatti

1.00

Tyumen

2.29

allows per match

Lada Tolyatti

2.29

Tyumen

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lada Tolyatti+0.00on par

Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lada Tolyatti ↓

Tyumen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–38%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lada Tolyatti or draw

32%

Lada Tolyatti or Tyumen

82%

Draw or Tyumen

86%

Winning margin

Lada Tolyatti wins by 2+

4%

Tyumen wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Lada Tolyatti 1+ goals

60%

Lada Tolyatti 2+ goals

23%

Lada Tolyatti 3+ goals

7%

Tyumen 1+ goals

90%

Tyumen 2+ goals

66%

Tyumen 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Lada Tolyatti (draw refunded)

17%

Tyumen (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lada Tolyatti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 41 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lada Tolyatti attack 1.00 + Tyumen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Tyumen attack 2.29 + Lada Tolyatti defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lada Tolyatti scores more

14%

level

18%

Tyumen scores more

68%

Tyumen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff