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Tyumen vs Khimki — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
P. Golubović 75' (OG)
A. Korotaev 49'
I. Porokhov 12' (pen)
A. Rudenko 41' (pen)
7/17/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 1Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Tyumen33%
×Draw28%
Khimki39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.11
Khimki
1.23

Khimki creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 50 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.02
Khimki
1.38

allows per match

Tyumen
1.08
Khimki
1.20

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
61%
Tyumen or Khimki
72%
Draw or Khimki
67%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
13%
Khimki wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
67%
Tyumen 2+ goals
30%
Tyumen 3+ goals
10%
Khimki 1+ goals
71%
Khimki 2+ goals
35%
Khimki 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
46%
Khimki (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.02 + Khimki defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Khimki attack 1.38 + Tyumen defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tyumen scores more
33%
level
28%
Khimki scores more
39%

Khimki at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
I. PorokhovPenalty
31'
Ruslan Baytukov
41'
A. RudenkoPenalty
46'
E. Tatarinov← I. Druzhinin
49'
A. Korotaev
55'
L. Skvortsov← A. Guliev
55'
A. Mukhin← A. Cherny
64'
S. Melentijević← I. Chezhia
64'
D. Yanov← A. Rudenko
66'
A. Chukanov← I. Porokhov
72'
Ivan Markelov
75'
P. GolubovićOwn goal
79'
Lev Skvortsov
83'
E. Shmarov← C. Tassano
85'
Arshak Koryan
88'
N. Balakhontsev← V. Shitov
88'
A. Kobyalko← E. Tatarinov
90+3'
Nikita Pechenkin

Statistics

TyumenKhimki
Overview
5Corners7
Discipline
4Yellow Cards2

Tyumen 3 – 1 Khimki

Tyumen beat Khimki 3-1 in First League on July 17, 2023.

Goals: I. Porokhov (12' pen), A. Rudenko (41' pen), A. Korotaev (49'), P. Golubović (75' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.