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Khimki vs Tyumen — First League 2018

Khimki
Khimki
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tyumen
Tyumen
R. Netfullin 88'
A. Koryan 72'
K. Khosonov 37'
3/4/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 21Arena Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Khimki54%
×Draw26%
Tyumen21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki
1.55
Tyumen
0.86

Khimki creates 80% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 54 away

creates per match

Khimki
1.70
Tyumen
0.78

allows per match

Khimki
0.94
Tyumen
1.41

finishing

Khimki+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khimki or draw
79%
Khimki or Tyumen
74%
Draw or Tyumen
46%

Winning margin

Khimki wins by 2+
28%
Tyumen wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Khimki 1+ goals
79%
Khimki 2+ goals
46%
Khimki 3+ goals
20%
Tyumen 1+ goals
58%
Tyumen 2+ goals
21%
Tyumen 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Khimki (draw refunded)
72%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.94 · 50 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki attack 1.70 + Tyumen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Tyumen attack 0.78 + Khimki defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Khimki scores more
54%
level
26%
Tyumen scores more
21%

Khimki at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
Igor Druzhinin
37'
K. Khosonov
59'
S. Abdullahi← B. Magomedov
59'
R. Yuzepchuk← I. Berkovskiy
59'
I. Markelov← E. Tatarinov
65'
Danil Stepanov
70'
A. Koryan← D. Stepanov
70'
T. Kasimov← A. Rudenko
72'
Roman Yuzepchuk
72'
A. Koryan
75'
Evgeni Bolotov
83'
Y. Zhuravlev← R. Yuzepchuk
86'
P. Shadrin← A. Korotaev
86'
K. Nikishin← V. Shitov
88'
R. Netfullin

Statistics

KhimkiTyumen
Overview
2Corners5
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

First League: Khimki 3–0 Tyumen

Khimki beat Tyumen 3-0 in First League on March 4, 2024.

Goals: K. Khosonov (37'), A. Koryan (72'), R. Netfullin (88').

The match was played at Arena Khimki in Khimki.