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Tyumen vs KAMAZ — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
KAMAZ
KAMAZ
D. Ivanov 90+2' (OG)
I. Porokhov 56'
5/20/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen41%
×Draw31%
KAMAZ28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.11
KAMAZ
0.86

Tyumen creates 29% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 88 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
KAMAZ
0.66

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
KAMAZ
1.19

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
KAMAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

KAMAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
72%
Tyumen or KAMAZ
69%
Draw or KAMAZ
59%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
17%
KAMAZ wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
67%
Tyumen 2+ goals
30%
Tyumen 3+ goals
10%
KAMAZ 1+ goals
58%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
21%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
59%
KAMAZ (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

KAMAZ away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.19 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + KAMAZ defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

KAMAZ attack 0.66 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tyumen scores more
41%
level
31%
KAMAZ scores more
28%

Tyumen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Ilya Moskalenchik
42'
Surkhaykhan Abdullaev
46'
I. Markelov← I. Moskalenchik
46'
A. Abramov← I. Asylov
46'
B. Fartuna← S. Abdullaev
50'
R. Manuylov← A. Abramov
56'
I. Porokhov
69'
A. Polyutkin← V. Paltsev
79'
Y. Kirillov← D. Starodub
82'
I. Druzhinin← A. Korotaev
88'
A. Maryanov← V. Shitov
89'
Ilya Porokhov
90+2'
D. IvanovOwn goal

Statistics

TyumenKAMAZ
Discipline
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

Tyumen 2 – 0 KAMAZ

Tyumen beat KAMAZ 2-0 in First League on May 20, 2024.

Goals: I. Porokhov (56'), D. Ivanov (90+2' o.g.).

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.