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KAMAZ vs Tyumen — Second League - Group 4 2020

KAMAZ
KAMAZ
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tyumen
Tyumen
4/16/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion KAMAZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

KAMAZ50%
×Draw22%
Tyumen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KAMAZ
2.02
Tyumen
1.47

KAMAZ creates 37% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

creates per match

KAMAZ
3.21
Tyumen
2.29

allows per match

KAMAZ
0.64
Tyumen
0.83

finishing

KAMAZ+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KAMAZ ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

KAMAZ or draw
72%
KAMAZ or Tyumen
78%
Draw or Tyumen
50%

Winning margin

KAMAZ wins by 2+
29%
Tyumen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

KAMAZ 1+ goals
87%
KAMAZ 2+ goals
60%
KAMAZ 3+ goals
33%
Tyumen 1+ goals
77%
Tyumen 2+ goals
43%
Tyumen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

KAMAZ (draw refunded)
64%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KAMAZ at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.83 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KAMAZ attack 3.21 + Tyumen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.02

Tyumen attack 2.29 + KAMAZ defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

KAMAZ scores more
50%
level
22%
Tyumen scores more
28%

KAMAZ at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "KAMAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KAMAZ 3 – 0 Tyumen

KAMAZ beat Tyumen 3-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion KAMAZ in Naberezhnye Chelny.