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Tyumen vs FK Sokol Saratov — First League 2018

Tyumen
Tyumen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
A. Maksimenko 42'
9/15/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Tyumen45%
×Draw28%
FK Sokol Saratov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tyumen
1.29
FK Sokol Saratov
0.91

Tyumen creates 42% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 52 away

creates per match

Tyumen
1.04
FK Sokol Saratov
0.75

allows per match

Tyumen
1.07
FK Sokol Saratov
1.54

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw
74%
Tyumen or FK Sokol Saratov
72%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
55%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+
21%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals
72%
Tyumen 2+ goals
37%
Tyumen 3+ goals
14%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
60%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
23%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)
63%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.75 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tyumen scores more
45%
level
28%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
26%

Tyumen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Dmitriy Ivanov
42'
A. Maksimenko
55'
D. Tkachuk← D. Kuptsov
64'
V. Samko← S. Saaduev
64'
N. Kaplenko← D. Poluboyarinov
70'
D. Talalay← A. Kulishev
70'
A. Savinov← D. Klenkin
70'
I. Churikov← D. Sasin
82'
S. Poroykov← A. Bem
82'
A. Maryanov← A. Korotaev
84'
V. Shpitalny← R. Yuzepchuk
84'
V. Babaev← R. Chobanov
90+4'
Olivier Kenfack
90+4'
Petr Kosarevskiy

Statistics

TyumenFK
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Tyumen vs FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Tyumen 1-0 in First League on September 15, 2024.

Goals: A. Maksimenko (42').

The match was played at Stadion Geolog in Tyumen'.