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FK Sokol Saratov vs Tyumen — First League 2018

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
5/12/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 32Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov36%
×Draw31%
Tyumen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
1.03
Tyumen
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 58 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.67
Tyumen
0.79

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.13
Tyumen
1.40

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
67%
FK Sokol Saratov or Tyumen
69%
Draw or Tyumen
64%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
14%
Tyumen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
64%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
28%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
9%
Tyumen 1+ goals
62%
Tyumen 2+ goals
25%
Tyumen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
53%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

Tyumen away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.40 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 0.67 + Tyumen defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Tyumen attack 0.79 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
36%
level
31%
Tyumen scores more
33%

FK Sokol Saratov at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Tyumen

FK Sokol Saratov beat Tyumen 2-1 in First League on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.