Tyumen 1–0 FK Neftekhimik: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Neftekhimik

D. Karpov 90+3'

4/27/2025

First League · Round 30Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Tyumen36%

×Draw29%

FK Neftekhimik35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchFK Neftekhimik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.10

Tyumen

1.11

FK Neftekhimik

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 123 away

1.04

creates per match

1.12

1.07

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Tyumen

1.04

FK Neftekhimik

1.12

allows per match

Tyumen

1.07

FK Neftekhimik

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

FK Neftekhimik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

65%

Tyumen or FK Neftekhimik

71%

Draw or FK Neftekhimik

64%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

14%

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

67%

Tyumen 2+ goals

30%

Tyumen 3+ goals

10%

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals

67%

FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals

30%

FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

50%

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 55 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 1.04 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.11

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Tyumen defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tyumen scores more

36%

level

29%

FK Neftekhimik scores more

35%

Tyumen at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

N. Tolstopyatov← B. Zorin

46'

E. Valiakhmetov← A. Kakhidze

60'

D. Tkachuk← A. Bezchasnyuk

71'

M. Petrov← V. Shitov

71'

A. Bem← S. Poroykov

77'

D. Rodin← R. Magomedov

77'

A. Budylin← M. Laykin

82'

S. Aliev← A. Nikitin

83'

A. Savinov← A. Korotaev

83'

D. Karpov← I. Gulko

90+3'

D. Karpov

Statistics

TyumenFK

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0