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FK Neftekhimik vs Tyumen — Friendlies Clubs 2026

FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
CANC
08:00
Tyumen
Tyumen
2/21/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FK Neftekhimik50%
×Draw20%
Tyumen30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Neftekhimik
2.30
Tyumen
1.77

FK Neftekhimik creates 30% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

FK Neftekhimik
2.00
Tyumen
2.40

allows per match

FK Neftekhimik
1.15
Tyumen
2.60

finishing

FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Neftekhimik ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

FK Neftekhimik or draw
70%
FK Neftekhimik or Tyumen
80%
Draw or Tyumen
50%

Winning margin

FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
30%
Tyumen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
90%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
67%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
40%
Tyumen 1+ goals
83%
Tyumen 2+ goals
53%
Tyumen 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
62%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Neftekhimik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Tyumen away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Neftekhimik attack 2.00 + Tyumen defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Tyumen attack 2.40 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FK Neftekhimik scores more
50%
level
20%
Tyumen scores more
30%

FK Neftekhimik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FK Neftekhimik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Neftekhimik vs Tyumen — Match Preview

FK Neftekhimik face Tyumen on February 21, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.