Tychy 71 2–0 Stal Rzeszów: Result & Stats | I Liga

Tychy 71

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stal Rzeszów

12/17/2023

I Liga · Round 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Tychy 7147%

×Draw25%

Stal Rzeszów29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchStal Rzeszów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.21

Tychy 71

1.62

Stal Rzeszów

1.21

Tychy 71 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 69 away

1.50

creates per match

1.19

1.22

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.50

Stal Rzeszów

1.19

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.22

Stal Rzeszów

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Stal Rzeszów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

71%

Tychy 71 or Stal Rzeszów

75%

Draw or Stal Rzeszów

53%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

24%

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

80%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

48%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

22%

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals

70%

Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals

34%

Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

62%

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.62

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

47%

level

25%

Stal Rzeszów scores more

29%

Tychy 71 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff