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Stal Rzeszów vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
9/30/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 11Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Stal Rzeszów43%
×Draw24%
Tychy 7133%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.63
Tychy 71
1.38

Stal Rzeszów creates 18% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 136 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.75
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.54
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
67%
Stal Rzeszów or Tychy 71
76%
Draw or Tychy 71
57%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
22%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
80%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
48%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
22%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
75%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
40%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
57%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
43%
level
24%
Tychy 71 scores more
33%

Stal Rzeszów at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stal Rzeszów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Rzeszów vs Tychy 71

Stal Rzeszów beat Tychy 71 5-1 in I Liga on September 30, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.