Tychy 71 2–3 Olimpia Grudziądz: Result & Stats

Tychy 71

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Olimpia Grudziądz

L. Grzeszczyk 50'

M. Biernat 10'

João Criciuma 90+4'

Omran Haydary 90+1' (pen), 87'

9/28/2019

I Liga · Round 11Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Tychy 7145%

×Draw25%

Olimpia Grudziądz30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.21

Tychy 71

1.56

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.21

Tychy 71 creates 29% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 16 away

1.43

creates per match

1.19

1.24

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.43

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.19

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.24

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

70%

Tychy 71 or Olimpia Grudziądz

75%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

55%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

23%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

79%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

46%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

21%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

70%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

34%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

61%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 128 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.43 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.56

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.19 + Tychy 71 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

45%

level

25%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

30%

Tychy 71 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

13'

16'

30'

45'

D. Kristo

50'

L. Grzeszczyk

56'

R. Ziętarski← M. Kona

56'

S. Kamiński← Omar Monterde

62'

S. Lewicki← M. Piątkowski

80'

João Criciuma← E. Maloku

81'

R. Szywacz

87'

Omran Haydary

90'

M. Biernat

90'

W. Szumilas← S. Steblecki

90+1'

Omran HaydaryPenalty

90+4'

João Criciuma

Tychy

Olimpia

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

13'▲Ł. Moneta←▼K. Daniel

62'▲S. Lewicki←▼M. Piątkowski

90'▲W. Szumilas←▼S. Steblecki

Tychy 71 substitutes

MonetaLewickiSzumilas

Manager: J. Trzeciak

56'▲R. Ziętarski←▼M. Kona

56'▲S. Kamiński←▼Omar Monterde

80'▲João Criciuma←▼E. Maloku

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

ZiętarskiKamińskiCriciuma

Match Recap: Tychy 71 vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Olimpia Grudziądz beat Tychy 71 3-2 in I Liga on September 28, 2019.

Goals: M. Biernat (10'), L. Grzeszczyk (50'), Omran Haydary (87', 90+1' pen), João Criciuma (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.

Tychy 71 vs Olimpia Grudziądz — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Tychy 71 vs Olimpia Grudziądz