Olimpia Grudziądz 4–2 Tychy 71: Result & Stats

Olimpia Grudziądz

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Tychy 71

S. Krocz 86', 71', 26'

K. Cichoń 59'

M. Błachewicz 38'

M. Hołownia 20'

9/25/2024

League #108 · 1st RoundStadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz62%

×Draw18%

Tychy 7119%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Olimpia GrudziądzExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.33

Olimpia Grudziądz

2.50

Tychy 71

1.33

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

2.33

Tychy 71

1.00

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.67

Tychy 71

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Tychy 71 →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw

81%

Olimpia Grudziądz or Tychy 71

82%

Draw or Tychy 71

38%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

41%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

92%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

71%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

45%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

74%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

38%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

77%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 2.33 + Tychy 71 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Tychy 71 attack 1.00 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

62%

level

18%

Tychy 71 scores more

19%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Hołownia

26'

S. Krocz

27'

35'

M. Dziuba← R. Makowski

38'

M. Błachewicz

45+1'

48'

59'

K. Cichoń

69'

K. Rychert← J. Bonikowski

69'

J. Bieroński← M. Szpakowski

69'

J. Keiblinger← T. Kubik

71'

S. Krocz

80'

D. Rumin← T. Kurtaran

80'

W. Niewiarowski← J. Ertlthaler

85'

O. Sikorski← K. Cichoń

86'

S. Krocz

88'

I. Maruszak← R. Kobryń

88'

M. Mas← S. Krocz

Olimpia

Tychy

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

Krocz

⚽

▼

Cichoń

▼

Bonikowsk

Manager: G. Niciński

69'▲K. Rychert←▼J. Bonikowski

85'▲O. Sikorski←▼K. Cichoń

88'▲I. Maruszak←▼R. Kobryń

88'▲M. Mas←▼S. Krocz

Olimpia Grudziądz substitutes

RychertSikorskiMaruszakMasKoperskiKukulskiGómezTsiupa

Manager: A. Skowronek

35'▲M. Dziuba←▼R. Makowski

69'▲J. Bieroński←▼M. Szpakowski

69'▲J. Keiblinger←▼T. Kubik

80'▲D. Rumin←▼T. Kurtaran

80'▲W. Niewiarowski←▼J. Ertlthaler

Tychy 71 substitutes

DziubaBierońskiKeiblingerRuminNiewiarowskiŻytekTecławDijakovićŁubik

League #108: Olimpia Grudziądz 4–2 Tychy 71

Olimpia Grudziądz beat Tychy 71 4-2 in League #108 on September 25, 2024.

Goals: M. Hołownia (20'), S. Krocz (26', 71', 86'), M. Błachewicz (38'), K. Cichoń (59').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego in Grudziądz.

Olimpia Grudziądz vs Tychy 71 — League #108 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #108: Olimpia Grudziądz 4–2 Tychy 71