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Tychy 71 vs Nieciecza — I Liga 2018

Tychy 71
Tychy 71
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
8/24/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 7Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Tychy 7136%
×Draw26%
Nieciecza38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tychy 71
1.32
Nieciecza
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 101 away

creates per match

Tychy 71
1.44
Nieciecza
1.51

allows per match

Tychy 71
1.24
Nieciecza
1.21

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par
Nieciecza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Nieciecza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw
62%
Tychy 71 or Nieciecza
74%
Draw or Nieciecza
64%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+
16%
Nieciecza wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals
73%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
38%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
15%
Nieciecza 1+ goals
75%
Nieciecza 2+ goals
40%
Nieciecza 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
48%
Nieciecza (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.24 · 132 matches

Nieciecza away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.21 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.44 + Nieciecza defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32

Nieciecza attack 1.51 + Tychy 71 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tychy 71 scores more
36%
level
26%
Nieciecza scores more
38%

Nieciecza at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tychy 71 vs Nieciecza

Nieciecza beat Tychy 71 2-0 in I Liga on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.