Nieciecza 6–1 Tychy 71: Result & Stats | I Liga

Nieciecza

FT

6 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Tychy 71

A. Dombrovskyi 89'

W. Jakubik 82'

W. Biedrzycki 60' (pen)

A. Radwański 45'

A. Putivtsev 36'

A. Trubeha 10'

M. Błachewicz 38'

5/19/2024

I Liga · Round 33Stadion Sportowy Bruk-Bet Termalica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Nieciecza47%

×Draw25%

Tychy 7128%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiecieczaExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.16

Nieciecza

1.59

Tychy 71

1.16

Nieciecza creates 37% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 133 away

1.71

creates per match

1.22

1.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Nieciecza

1.71

Tychy 71

1.22

allows per match

Nieciecza

1.09

Tychy 71

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nieciecza+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nieciecza ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Nieciecza or draw

72%

Nieciecza or Tychy 71

75%

Draw or Tychy 71

53%

Winning margin

Nieciecza wins by 2+

24%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nieciecza 1+ goals

80%

Nieciecza 2+ goals

47%

Nieciecza 3+ goals

21%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

69%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

32%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nieciecza (draw refunded)

63%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nieciecza at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.47 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nieciecza attack 1.71 + Tychy 71 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Nieciecza defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nieciecza scores more

47%

level

25%

Tychy 71 scores more

28%

Nieciecza at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nieciecza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

36'

38'

45'

46'

W. Jakubik← J. Branecki

48'

M. Blachewicz

49'

K. Karasek

53'

J. Teclaw

60'

M. Stangret← D. Rumin

60'

N. Wojtuszek← W. Żytek

60'

P. Mystkowski← K. Machowski

60'

W. BiedrzyckiPenalty

67'

A. Kostrzewski← M. Kikolski

68'

J. Wróbel← A. Trubeha

79'

M. Dijaković← M. Błachewicz

80'

J. Nowakowski← K. Karasek

82'

W. Jakubik

89'

A. Dombrovskyi

Nieciecza

Tychy

▼

Kikolski

Połap

Tecław

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Trubeha

▼

Branecki

Manager: M. Brosz

46'▲W. Jakubik←▼J. Branecki

68'▲J. Wróbel←▼A. Trubeha

80'▲J. Nowakowski←▼K. Karasek

Nieciecza substitutes

JakubikWróbelNowakowskiWacławekHilbrychtTopórJędrasikSpendlhoferJovanović

Manager: D. Banasik

60'▲M. Stangret←▼D. Rumin

60'▲N. Wojtuszek←▼W. Żytek

60'▲P. Mystkowski←▼K. Machowski

67'▲A. Kostrzewski←▼M. Kikolski

79'▲M. Dijaković←▼M. Błachewicz

Tychy 71 substitutes

StangretWojtuszekMystkowskiKostrzewskiDijakovićSkibickiKrzakSzpakowskiKurtaran