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Tychy 71 vs Miedz Legnica — I Liga 2018

Tychy 71
Tychy 71
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
7/19/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 1Tychy City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tychy 7139%
×Draw27%
Miedz Legnica34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tychy 71
1.34
Miedz Legnica
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 105 away

creates per match

Tychy 71
1.50
Miedz Legnica
1.23

allows per match

Tychy 71
1.22
Miedz Legnica
1.18

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par
Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Miedz Legnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw
66%
Tychy 71 or Miedz Legnica
73%
Draw or Miedz Legnica
61%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+
18%
Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals
74%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
39%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
15%
Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
71%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
35%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
54%
Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Miedz Legnica away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.18 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Miedz Legnica attack 1.23 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tychy 71 scores more
39%
level
27%
Miedz Legnica scores more
34%

Tychy 71 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Tychy 71 4–3 Miedz Legnica

Tychy 71 beat Miedz Legnica 4-3 in I Liga on July 19, 2025.

The match was played at Tychy City Stadium in Tychy.