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Miedz Legnica vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Miedz Legnica
Miedz Legnica
FT
6 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
11/28/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 18Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Miedz Legnica49%
×Draw24%
Tychy 7127%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Miedz Legnica
1.67
Tychy 71
1.19

Miedz Legnica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 136 away

creates per match

Miedz Legnica
1.83
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Miedz Legnica
1.15
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw
73%
Miedz Legnica or Tychy 71
76%
Draw or Tychy 71
51%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+
26%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals
81%
Miedz Legnica 2+ goals
50%
Miedz Legnica 3+ goals
23%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
70%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
33%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)
64%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 102 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.83 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more
49%
level
24%
Tychy 71 scores more
27%

Miedz Legnica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Miedz Legnica vs Tychy 71

Miedz Legnica beat Tychy 71 6-1 in I Liga on November 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.