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Tychy 71 vs Lechia Gdansk — I Liga 2018

Tychy 71
Tychy 71
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
11/5/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tychy 7143%
×Draw25%
Lechia Gdansk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tychy 71
1.52
Lechia Gdansk
1.29

Tychy 71 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 17 away

creates per match

Tychy 71
1.50
Lechia Gdansk
1.35

allows per match

Tychy 71
1.22
Lechia Gdansk
1.53

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw
68%
Tychy 71 or Lechia Gdansk
75%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
57%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+
21%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals
78%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
45%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
20%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
72%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
37%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
57%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.35 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tychy 71 scores more
43%
level
25%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
32%

Tychy 71 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tychy 71 vs Lechia Gdansk

Lechia Gdansk beat Tychy 71 3-1 in I Liga on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.