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Lechia Gdansk vs Tychy 71 — I Liga 2018

Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tychy 71
Tychy 71
5/4/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 31Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lechia Gdansk61%
×Draw22%
Tychy 7117%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lechia Gdansk
1.84
Tychy 71
0.84

Lechia Gdansk creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 136 away

creates per match

Lechia Gdansk
2.18
Tychy 71
1.22

allows per match

Lechia Gdansk
0.47
Tychy 71
1.50

finishing

Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par
Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lechia Gdansk ↓

Tychy 71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lechia Gdansk or draw
83%
Lechia Gdansk or Tychy 71
78%
Draw or Tychy 71
39%

Winning margin

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
36%
Tychy 71 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
84%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
55%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
28%
Tychy 71 1+ goals
57%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
21%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
78%
Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lechia Gdansk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lechia Gdansk attack 2.18 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Lechia Gdansk defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lechia Gdansk scores more
61%
level
22%
Tychy 71 scores more
17%

Lechia Gdansk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lechia Gdansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lechia Gdansk vs Tychy 71

Lechia Gdansk beat Tychy 71 3-0 in I Liga on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Gdańsk.