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Tychy 71 vs Jastrzębie — I Liga 2018

Tychy 71
Tychy 71
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
11/6/2021I LigaI Liga · Round 16Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Tychy 7145%
×Draw26%
Jastrzębie29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tychy 71
1.45
Jastrzębie
1.11

Tychy 71 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 68 away

creates per match

Tychy 71
1.50
Jastrzębie
0.99

allows per match

Tychy 71
1.23
Jastrzębie
1.40

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw
71%
Tychy 71 or Jastrzębie
74%
Draw or Jastrzębie
55%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+
22%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals
77%
Tychy 71 2+ goals
42%
Tychy 71 3+ goals
18%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
67%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
30%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)
61%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 135 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Jastrzębie defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jastrzębie attack 0.99 + Tychy 71 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tychy 71 scores more
45%
level
26%
Jastrzębie scores more
29%

Tychy 71 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tychy 71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Tychy 71 4–1 Jastrzębie

Tychy 71 beat Jastrzębie 4-1 in I Liga on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Tychy.